Tuesday Tune: Can't Happen Here?

KATU Poll: Novick Leads By Double Digits

Although the largest group of voters is still undecided, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick has a double-digit lead over primary opponent Jeff Merkley, according to a poll conducted for Portland's KATU Channel 2.

From the Associated Press:

A poll ... by SurveyUSA gave Novick a double-digit lead over Merkley, with 23 percent of the 597 likely voters surveyed saying they planned to vote for him. Merkley came in third in the automated poll, with 11 percent of voters, a statistical tie with Eugene anti-war activist Candy Neville, who was supported by 12 percent of voters in the poll.

Forty percent of voters in the poll, which had a margin of error of 4.1 percent, said they were still undecided.

Novick's campaign manager said the poll reflected their momentum, but a spokesman for Merkley dismissed it, saying the results were not "legitimate."

Of course he did. When KATU Salem Bureau Chief Melica Johnson asked Merkley spokesman Matt Canter to show her the campaign's internal polling in order to back-up his claims that KATU's poll isn't credible, a disheveled Canter literally said, "Um, w-w-we're not gonna, ya know, I'm gonna decline to release that."

Johnson also reported that the poll results have generated a lot of media interest, including from the Beltway. Down south in Eugene, Register-Guard reporter David Steve's provides some analysis about the poll, some updates about campaign advertising buys, and then he comments on the race in general:

The poll numbers seem a bit suspect, since they also show Candy Neville with 12 percent, even though her campaign activities have been limited mainly to appearances at candidate forums.

But another number—the 40 percent undecided—means that even if Novick’s support is overstated and Merkley’s is understated, this race is up for grabs and will largely be decided by two things:

1. The vast group of voters who haven’t been paying attention yet, but will start weighing their choices in the next few weeks.

2. Each candidates’ ability to raise money and buy media and other methods of getting their word out.

...Novick campaign manager Jake Wiegler said his campaign is ready to start running ads on TV, too. Besides the Portland and Eugene markets, Novick plans to air commercials in Bend and Medford. A source who has reviewed TV station ad-buy documents said Novick is ready to nearly match Merkley in on-air presence; Merkley’s buy for April 8-14 totals about $57,000 for the two markets and Novicks’ for April 14-20 comes to about $60,000 in all four.

...One more possible factor: whether Republican Sen. Gordon Smith or any of his surrogates decide to jump in to steer primary votes in a way that gives them their preferred Democratic opponent for the fall race.

Oregonian political reporter Jeff Mapes also weighs in:

The margin of error is 4.1 percent in the automated poll. According to Associated Press, the Merkley campaign disputed the legitimacy of the survey, and some pollsters do have problems with Survey USA's methodology, which uses a recorded voice to question respondents.

But the poll is a sign that Novick has made inroads thanks to the buzz over his unconventional ads (which made light of his physical disabilities) and his strong volunteer organization. When I was in Medford a week ago covering former President Bill Clinton, I watched Novick volunteers handing out fliers to the 2,000 or so people standing in line - and there was no one in sight from the Merkley campaign.

...Merkley is now starting his television advertising campaign, which gives him the chance to connect with voters, who clearly are not yet very focused on this campaign. But it becomes clearer every day that this is a real primary race.

A little more than six weeks to go, folks. Hang on!

Let's Start With The Word "Moo"

Sen. Tim Calhoun, Saturday Night Live veteran Will Forte's creepy, fumbling perpetual candidate, is one of the funniest repeat guests they've had on Weekend Update for awhile.

Now he's running for president, and he's got some, uh, interesting ideas. Oregon State University's Agricultural Department may be especially intrigued by his "Cow College" proposal. Enjoy!

Cartoon: Jeff Merkley's Geico Strategy

(click image for larger version)

RELATED:
Oregon Primary Campaign,
David Sarasohn, The Oregonian, 4-06-08

Geico Insurance ad on YouTube.

Monday Morning Flak Attack: A Long-Distance Dedication

It seems Jeff Merkley didn't like the way things were stacking up in a race that featured himself against Steve Novick. So at Friday's Portland City Club debate Merkley tried to turn it into Novick against Merkley and U2's Bono -- like some kind of wonkfest version of a WWF tag team cage match that's gone horribly off the tracks.

But I'll be the first to admit it was morbidly fascinating to hear Merkley spend so much time fawning over a pop star in the middle of a debate for a U.S. Senate nomination while the country is at war, the economy is deteriorating and the planet's headed toward a slow-rolling boil.

Besides, who am I to stand in the way of such a beautifully budding relationship.

So maybe this long-distance dedication will help usher things along between Jeff and the newfound object of his debate affections.

Today In Oregon

Across


Left Behind

Mapes And Sarasohn On Novick v. Merkley

Oregonian political reporter Jeff Mapes and associate editor David Sarasohn weighed in today on Friday's Portland City Club debate between U.S. Senate candidates Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley.

Mapes called it for Merkley:

My sense is that Merkley probably got the most out of the debate. For the most part, the House speaker stuck to one theme: that he's been successful in getting legislators to work together while Novick is a loose cannon given to slashing attacks against Democrats with whom he disagrees.

Sarasohn gives the edge to Novick:

Just like it was supposed to, Friday's debate between two Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate focused on a vital issue of public policy: Is Irish rock singer Bono the most hypocritical human on the face of the Earth?

We'll have to wait for the returns from Roseburg on that one.

... If the best chance to unseat Smith belongs to the candidate most capable of biting large chunks out of him, the edge probably went to Novick. But whoever wins the May 20 primary will start the next day essentially broke, while Smith will face the morning with at least $8 million.

Oh, yeah, there's that bitter dose of reality as well. Ouch! Obviously it's gonna take somebody a little different to bite into Smith.

From The WMD Stockpiles: Leading The "Left Behind" Band

10-12-04...(click image for larger version)

Merkley On The Issues: Why Do You Hate Bono, Steve?

Silly but true, one of the three most pressing issues Jeff Merkley wanted opponent Steve Novick to answer for Oregon voters was basically, "Why do you hate Bono, Steve?" Yes, yes! Enquiring minds want to know, Mr. Novick.

Merkley also seemed oddly obsessed with BlueOregon. All of his questions for Novick were about blogposts there. Yes, Jeff, what's going on at BlueOregon is the top issue for Oregon Democrats.

Here's video of the entire debate. Watch for yourself.

Missoulian: Obama, Clinton Visits Bad For Plants?

News that the campaigns for Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are headed to Missoula, Mont., for back-to-back weekend appearances has local naturalists worried for the mountainside plant life.

From Missoulian reporter Besty Cohen's article:

As tempting as it may be, the folks who have been working hard to protect the natural plant life on Mount Sentinel are asking local politicos not to transform the landmark concrete “M” (above the University of Montana) into a giant “ObaMa” welcome sign this week.

For that matter, please don't spell out “Hillary Clinton” - or anything else - with the “L” (for Loyal High School) on Mount Jumbo, said Marilyn Marler, the University of Montana's natural areas specialist.

Although snow still blankets the hillsides, the ground is not frozen and plants are emerging, with some in early stages of blooming, Marler said Monday. “The ground is thawed enough - it's mud season up there and it is probably the most sensitive time right now,” she said.

“I would like to encourage people to stop treating our hillsides as billboards that are just waiting to be filled with our opinions,” she said. “I have been working hard to teach people that putting signs on Mount Sentinel (and Mount Jumbo and the North Hills) is destructive to the native prairie plants that live there.

Marler said she became concerned about the potential situation after reading several local blogs that suggested welcoming candidates to town by using the giant letters.

Marler said she doesn't want to dampen people's excitement when presidential candidate Barack Obama comes to town Saturday, and when presidential candidate Hillary Clinton visits on Sunday.

But she also doesn't want Missoula's treasured natural areas to be trampled.

“The ‘L' and the ‘M' are probably here to stay,” she said, “but let's leave the rest of the hillsides alone and respect the non-human components of our beautiful city.”

Maybe a non-human rights commission is in order.

In the meantime, click HERE for an incredible 360-degree controllable rotating view of Missoula from the "M" on Mount Sentinel overlooking the U of M campus.

I'm not sure how this technology works, but it's very cool, and the sunset scene is awesome. You won't be disappointed, unless you don't have QuickTime, which is required to view it.

WMD Stockpiles: Bush's Social Security "Crisis"

12-16-04 ...(click on image for larger version)

After George W. Bush earned his "political capital" by squeaking by John Kerry in 2004, he decided to make a big push for his much-hyped plan to "save" the Social Security by letting Americans play the stock market with their SS funds.

The Republican talking point during this attempt said that unless America immediately took a radical step like privatization, Social Security would implode within days (well, OK, not literally days, but you get the idea). As the cartoon above attempted to highlight, like the lead up to the war in Iraq, Bush's privatization push was another fear-based hype job intended to sway public opinion in favor of a bad idea that extreme elements of the Republican Party had dreamed for years about pulling off.

The reality, of course is that despite the right-wing noise machine, it is important for the American public to understand there is almost nothing "wrong" with Social Security itself, or so says U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick.

You'd never know that was Novick's position, however, by listening to the rhetoric and negative polling conducted by Novick's primary opponent, Jeff Merkley, whose truthiness-challenged line of attack against Novick tries to tie the fighter with a hard left hook to Bush's wingnut plan to tear down a hallmark of the New Deal.

As Novick points out above, he wants nothing to do with the hysterical GOP claims that there is an immediate crisis with Social Security that requires radical action. But he is honest enough to realize, like Barack Obama and Peter DeFazio, that some modest tweaks may be necessary to deal with previous fiscal irresponsibility that could leave the program struggling when the 'boomer bill comes due.

Here's Novick's actual policy statement from his website:

"In 1983, Congress raised Social Security taxes on working people, collecting more taxes than needed to pay current benefits, in order to build up a trust fund that could be used to pay the benefits of the baby boomers when they retire. But every President since then - except for Bill Clinton in his second term - has borrowed from that trust fund to pay for other programs. George Bush has borrowed about $150 billion a year, to pay for the war in Iraq and tax cuts that favored the wealthiest Americans. In the meantime, he also continues to push for ‘privatizing' Social Security - so he can escape the blame for his borrowing endangering the funds for senior citizens in the future."

"It would be a betrayal of the worst sort to begin cutting the retirement benefits of working Americans, particularly after they’ve been paying extra taxes for the past two decades to shore up the system. To stop that from happening, the federal government will need to repay its debt to Social Security - which may require cutting other spending or raising revenue."

"One way to raise revenue would be to ask wealthier Americans to contribute more. Right now the Social Security tax doesn't apply to incomes above $97,500. In other words, if you make $1 million a year, over 90% of your income is exempt from Social Security taxes. We might need to apply the Social Security tax to incomes above $100,000. If we do, steps could be taken to limit the tax hit on families making in the $100,000 to $150,000 range - many of whom probably don't feel rich. Barack Obama, Peter DeFazio and I support lifting the cap, while my opponent in the primary does not."

That seems pretty clear. And it's nothing like the GOP talking point that says Social Security is so endangered it requires radical change. Anyone who says Novick is echoing GOP talking points is simply wrong. Anyone who makes that bogus claim repeatedly is something worse.

Video: A Debate With Hate, Or Is It?

From the fine folks at Mad TV, an equal opportunity purveyor of mockery. This clip is a classic, although I'm not sure which one of these guys is right. Enjoy!

Cartoon: HillaRocky 2008

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Hillary Clinton compared herself to legendary film character Rocky Balboa today.

From the Associated Press:

Recalling a famous scene on the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art from the 1976 Oscar-winning film "Rocky," Clinton said that ending her presidential campaign now would be as if "Rocky Balboa had gotten halfway up those art museum steps and said, 'Well, I guess that's about far enough.'"

"Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing a fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up. And neither do the American people," Clinton said in excerpts of prepared remarks to be given Tuesday to a meeting of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.

"The Republicans aren't going to give up without a fight," Clinton said. "And no matter how beautiful your rhetoric, the Republicans aren't going to turn off their attack machine — it doesn't have an off-switch."

"But one thing you know about me is that when I say I'll fight for you, I'll fight for you," the New York senator said. "I know what it's like to stumble. I know what it means to get knocked down. But I've never stayed down, and I never will."

This raises the question: Do you think Hillary has ever seen Sylvester Stallone's original Rocky? Rocky works as muscle for a loan shark in that movie. He also gets his butt kicked by Apollo Creed and loses the fight -- but not before inflicting a lot of damage on the eventual winner. Is that really how she sees herself?

Statesman-Journal: Merkley Campaign One Of The Week's Losers

The Salem Statesman-Journal weighed in on the Oregon Democratic Senate primary this week with a reaction to news that Jeff Merkley has been poll testing negative attacks against Steve Novick. In a column highlighting the week's winners and losers, Merkley fell into the latter category.

LOSER: Jeff Merkley's campaign. The Associated Press reported that the campaign is polling Oregon voters, testing negative messages about fellow Democratic Senate candidate Steve Novick. If Merkley's willing to wallow in the gutter, voters only can assume his campaign is going nowhere.

That sure seems to be the growing conventional wisdom.

Tuesday Tunes: A Little Slice Of Heaven

Bob Dylan's words and Sam Cooke's voice. Does it get any better than this?