KATU Poll: Novick Leads By Double Digits

Although the largest group of voters is still undecided, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick has a double-digit lead over primary opponent Jeff Merkley, according to a poll conducted for Portland's KATU Channel 2.

From the Associated Press:

A poll ... by SurveyUSA gave Novick a double-digit lead over Merkley, with 23 percent of the 597 likely voters surveyed saying they planned to vote for him. Merkley came in third in the automated poll, with 11 percent of voters, a statistical tie with Eugene anti-war activist Candy Neville, who was supported by 12 percent of voters in the poll.

Forty percent of voters in the poll, which had a margin of error of 4.1 percent, said they were still undecided.

Novick's campaign manager said the poll reflected their momentum, but a spokesman for Merkley dismissed it, saying the results were not "legitimate."

Of course he did. When KATU Salem Bureau Chief Melica Johnson asked Merkley spokesman Matt Canter to show her the campaign's internal polling in order to back-up his claims that KATU's poll isn't credible, a disheveled Canter literally said, "Um, w-w-we're not gonna, ya know, I'm gonna decline to release that."

Johnson also reported that the poll results have generated a lot of media interest, including from the Beltway. Down south in Eugene, Register-Guard reporter David Steve's provides some analysis about the poll, some updates about campaign advertising buys, and then he comments on the race in general:

The poll numbers seem a bit suspect, since they also show Candy Neville with 12 percent, even though her campaign activities have been limited mainly to appearances at candidate forums.

But another number—the 40 percent undecided—means that even if Novick’s support is overstated and Merkley’s is understated, this race is up for grabs and will largely be decided by two things:

1. The vast group of voters who haven’t been paying attention yet, but will start weighing their choices in the next few weeks.

2. Each candidates’ ability to raise money and buy media and other methods of getting their word out.

...Novick campaign manager Jake Wiegler said his campaign is ready to start running ads on TV, too. Besides the Portland and Eugene markets, Novick plans to air commercials in Bend and Medford. A source who has reviewed TV station ad-buy documents said Novick is ready to nearly match Merkley in on-air presence; Merkley’s buy for April 8-14 totals about $57,000 for the two markets and Novicks’ for April 14-20 comes to about $60,000 in all four.

...One more possible factor: whether Republican Sen. Gordon Smith or any of his surrogates decide to jump in to steer primary votes in a way that gives them their preferred Democratic opponent for the fall race.

Oregonian political reporter Jeff Mapes also weighs in:

The margin of error is 4.1 percent in the automated poll. According to Associated Press, the Merkley campaign disputed the legitimacy of the survey, and some pollsters do have problems with Survey USA's methodology, which uses a recorded voice to question respondents.

But the poll is a sign that Novick has made inroads thanks to the buzz over his unconventional ads (which made light of his physical disabilities) and his strong volunteer organization. When I was in Medford a week ago covering former President Bill Clinton, I watched Novick volunteers handing out fliers to the 2,000 or so people standing in line - and there was no one in sight from the Merkley campaign.

...Merkley is now starting his television advertising campaign, which gives him the chance to connect with voters, who clearly are not yet very focused on this campaign. But it becomes clearer every day that this is a real primary race.

A little more than six weeks to go, folks. Hang on!